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{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }
so my friend, if you have a LIMITED company and able to get a credit line, borrow to the max, switch what you borrow in £ into hard assets (preferably not in the UK) and then wait for the “magic moment” a few years out.
if you borrow 1 million quid, you will likely end up being able to pay the loan back at a few cents on the dollar.
@QuasiConvexAnalysis
I follow up to the equation`s “massive oversupply” of $ & £ - where`s does that oversupply come from?
people with $ will not want to hang onto it anymore because the value and associated purchasing power decreases incrementally - e.g. today you can buy 2 loafs of bread with $1, tomorrow, that purchasing power is halved and you can only buy 1 loaf of bread. so your immediate reaction is to get rid of the $1 dollar you have on hand today to maximize your purchasing power.
this cycle is what sets off hyperinflation.
@QuasiConvexAnalysis
But if entities such as China start ditching the $ …. won`t they bankrupt themselves, as their reserves are based massively on it?
not really - china has around 1.5-2 trillion of exposure to the USD which they are slowly getting out of. but keep in mind, china generates a surplus every year so the most they have at risk is what they have lent out.
so lets say china reduces its exposure to 50% of what it is now - 1 trillion USD - thats what it will lose in a USD currency collapse.
thats why i’m telling you to borrow to the max, this situation favors debtors and screws lenders.
as an addendum to the previous comment, the “magic moment” may be a few years (lets say 5 years) out, so they have ample time to unwind.
@QuasiConvexAnalysis
Do you entirely trust China`s public accounting?
their public accounting is ok. its the private sector accounting thats really suspect - particularly SOEs and large “civilian enterprises”.
i’ve been to companies where they have 4 sets of books - and none of them are correct.
@QCA
I hear talk that the books cooking isn`t limited to the private sector but that Bejing itself is also doing it. You discount this?
actually, i have 1st hand experience in how the stats are assimilated - they are by no means perfect (frankly, all governments cook their books) since at the provincial level, there are discrepancies, but these are invariably limited due to the consequences for reporting false data. therefore, the margin of error for public data is not acute. in the private sector however, it is pretty much wild wild west.
@QCA
You think that the over-supply of $ that`s going to provide the engine for hyper-inflation will come from those holding it ditching it into the market as its value falls.
What do you say to the idea that the scale of debt in the Western World`s economy is of such an unprecedented scale that it dwarfs the amount of $ out there that can be ditched & if this is the case where`s the engine for driving hyper-inflation then?
i’m not sure i understand your question, since its ability to service debt and supply of $ rather than scale of debt thats critical to the equation.
@QCA
I`ve obviously poorly expressed what I`m driving at.
My point is that the debt can`t be serviced due to its scale & and this scale dwarfs current $ supply, including what can be feasilbly be dumped into the market by entities like China, therefore doesn`t that, - without some other engine to drive hyper-inflation - create a deflationary situation rather than a hyper-inflationary 1, i.e. the $ as an asset in limited supply increases in value?
i think i understand the point u r making. however, let me point out that supply of $ does not automatically go towards servicing debt - therefore, these are two separate points. in reality, the US may have a mega debt load which if people believe is in danger of default, these people will dump $ on the open market.
hope this explanation is clear.
@QCA
Interesting talking with you.
you too, my friend. take care and hope you come out shining out of this morbid mess we are in